Egyptian interference and its roles in the Sudanese conflict and Africa
Egyptian interference and its roles in the Sudanese conflict and AfricaBy: Alfred C.DJASNAN, Head of The Charilogone Editorial Team
Egypt's role in the conflict in Sudan is no secret. This is not the first time that Egypt has tried to gain control over this country, and it dates back to ancient times. Indeed, the two countries have deep historical ties, dating back to the times of ancient Egypt and Nubia. Nubia, located in southern Egypt and northern Sudan, was a trading partner and military adversary of ancient Egypt. Egypt took advantage of its military influence during the conquest of Sudan during the era of Mohammed Ali Basha the Turk, between 1821 and 1881, to confiscate part of the Sudanese lands located in the northeast of the country.
And we can still see today, in the 21st century era, that this intention of conquest is still present in the political sphere of the Egyptians. This means that figures from the black community, who generally come from the Nubian valleys, do not benefit from good promotions in the management of the country.
Since then, Egypt has fed its appetites in its relations with Sudan, based solely on geopolitical, economic and cultural interests, and continues to interfere in the internal conflict that concerns the Sudanese.
How does the Sudanese conflict pose a threat to Egypt's national security?
Shouldn't we simply say that the conflict in Sudan has stopped the country's economic activities, which has had negative impacts on the surge in prices in Egypt?
This conflict arose because the leadership of General Al-Burhan was questioned because he did not have a free hand to make decisions concerning the interests of the Sudanese and the country. The leader of the transition left his country in the hands of the Egyptians by granting them the Marawi base for their military training as part of “Operation Eagle of the Nile”.
This operation is a joint military initiative between Egypt and Sudan, aimed at strengthening security and cooperation between the two countries. But in fact, this military initiative is actually a preparation for war, preparing for a possible strike against the Great Renaissance Dam located on the Sudanese-Ethiopian border.
Some transitional leaders considered this act a betrayal, believing that it risked creating regional conflicts with other countries neighboring Sudan.
In early April 2023, General Hamiti's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched an attack on the Egyptian military base in Marawi in Sudan and also took several Egyptian soldiers prisoner near Merowe.
This exacerbated tensions between the two countries and created a patriotic leadership war between the forces of the RSF (Rapid Support Forces) and the SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces).
The presence of the Egyptian army at Merowe airport was linked to joint military exercises with the Sudanese army, as we mentioned at the beginning. This attack marked a turning point in the conflict, with intense clashes between the RSF and the SAF for control of the entire Sudan.
Currently, Egypt has key objectives regarding control of Sudan:
- Maintain in power its Sudanese ally, General Abdelfatah El-Burhan, even if he is criticized by the international community for having engaged his army in physical executions of civilians, carrying out bombings of civilians in several localities of the country.
- Keep Sudan under its influence to threaten Ethiopia in its management of the Great African Renaissance Dam.
- Keep in captivity refugees and asylum seekers, mainly Sudanese, residing in Egypt, in order to increase the number of refugees and allow the country to threaten Europe with an invasion of migrants if the borders with the Mediterranean are open. It is enough to follow the speech of the authorities to understand the Egyptian intention.
The challenges of the NIL basin
To strengthen its influence in Sudan and in many African countries, particularly those in the Nile Basin, Egypt does not hesitate to ally itself with countries isolated on the international scene such as Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, etc. The list is long.
As part of the Sudanese conflict, Algeria has moved closer and closer to Egypt to support Al-Burhan. Qatar has also invited itself into this grouping, but each party only sees its own interests.
Egypt, unhappy with the fact that the conflict in Sudan is not ending quickly and that this has especially caused the country to lose billions of dollars as well as war planes flying to the aid of the Sudanese army, contacts the Somali government and signs cooperation in economic investment, understood as military, with Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. The objective of this tripartite cooperation is to exert influence on the Horn of Africa by preventing Ethiopia from having an opening to the Red Sea.
This ambition failed because Turkey, a strategic ally of Ethiopia and Somalia, decided to play a historic role by bringing the two countries, namely Somalia and Ethiopia, together to sign a peace agreement in Ankara in January 2025. This peace agreement buries the diplomatic hatchet between the two brotherly countries that Egypt wanted to separate to exert its influence over Somalia and the Horn of Africa.
Egypt moves closer to Iran
Iran, struggling to make itself heard on the international scene after the loss of Syria, Lebanon to Hezbollah and recently Hamas, has decided to move closer to Egypt. The latter, sharing the same ambitions, immediately validated the visit of the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, who visited Egypt in October 2024, a first since 2013. This visit is part of a regional tour aimed at easing tensions and strengthening diplomatic relations.
From another geostrategic angle, Iran did not want Egypt to one day threaten its last Yemeni ally, the “Houtis”. Observation requires, since the Houtis' threats on maritime traffic in the Red Sea, with hijacked boats and their crews, Egypt has not raised a finger to threaten the Houtis with reprisals, despite the fact that their smuggling has caused a significant economic loss on the profitability of the Suez Canal. Iran's new ally, Egypt, does not want to lose it.
Beyond this rapprochement, Iran is killing two birds with one stone by strengthening its cooperation with Sudan, which is also seeking powerful allies to face its enemy, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), supported by the United Arab Emirates, according to the transitional Sudanese government.
Another Egyptian motivation to keep a strong hand on Sudan is to play the geopolitical card on the Nile Basin countries.
The Entebbe Treaty, Egypt's "black beast", also known as the Nile Basin Cooperation Framework Agreement, was signed in May 2010 by four East African countries: Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania.
This agreement aims to establish a more equitable sharing of the Nile waters between the riparian countries, in response to the claims of Egypt and Sudan, which benefit from very favorable quotas under previous agreements, notably that of 1959, under the colonial period, where Great Britain reigned supreme over Egypt and Sudan and decided what it should do without the consent of the other member countries of the Nile basin.
Dissatisfied with the proposed Nile Treaty, Egypt used its lobby with the African Union to derail the last meeting scheduled in Uganda in October 2024. Fortunately, despite the cancellation of the meeting by the host country, the Nile Basin Cooperation Framework Agreement (CFA), also known as the Entebbe Treaty, came into force on October 13, 2024 with 5 countries namely Ethiopia - the Rwanda - Uganda - Tanzania - Burundi, despite opposition and threats from Egypt to cancel this formal meeting.
Until today, unofficially, Egypt continues to threaten the Nile Basin countries indirectly. The reason is that the country of the pharaohs monitors possible initiatives for dam projects on the waters of the Nile and that their country would not tolerate such projects seeing the light of day.
For this, Egypt establishes partnerships with countries having the same borders with the Nile Basin member states in order to exert its influence.
It is in the same logic that Egypt, in its fight for the colonial shares of the Nile inherited from Great Britain, does not want Sudan to leave its influence and join the other countries in the project of equitable sharing of the water of the Nile, whatever the price to pay.
For Egypt, Sudan is a high-level strategic ally that should not be lost, because the Egyptian economy partly depends on raw materials from Sudan. This economic relationship is crucial for Egypt, which imports various resources from Sudan to support its industries and economic development. Imported raw materials include agricultural products, minerals, livestock etc. and other essential natural resources.
Given its economic, political and geopolitical advantages and assets, Egypt does not wish to deal with General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, alias Hemetti, in power in Khartoum. For Egypt, Hemetti does not appear to be a good ally, because he demands the economic independence of his country and will be far from being a friend of their country.
To this end, Egypt does not hide but clearly displays itself on the side of its pawn, General Al-Burhan, and faces the Sudanese and the forces of the FSR who are fighting against them and their Islamist allies in order to restore the independent authority of a new Sudan, dignified, prosperous and far from Egyptian influences and its allies.
Egypt's interference in the Sudanese, Libyan, Ethiopian, Somali and Palestinian conflicts etc. could necessarily lead to its decline under the regime of General Al-Sissi who clearly displays his ambition to make his country a military power in Africa and the Middle East.
The countries concerned, as well as those bordering the Nile basin, will not allow Egypt to definitively control the waters of the Nile.
The country of the Pharaohs has an interest in cooperating in a fair and equitable manner with African countries in general, without seeking to dictate or impose its political line, because this would inevitably create a climate of insecurity, especially in the Horn of Africa and across the continent.
TO BE CONTINUED...
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